Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Close Calls



After a recent one point loss to BYU, I began to wonder if the Sooners were capable of gutting out a close win. My hypothesis was that they had lost the ability to win in the fourth quarter after Mike Stoops left for Arizona late in the 2003 season. I figured it had something to do with the toughness, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, that those teams seemed to possess. I didn't want to let my feelings get the best of me so I ran the numbers. Here's what I discovered.

OU record in games decided by a touchdown or less in the Bob Stoops era (1999 – present)

WIN
11/11/00 Oklahoma 35, Texas A&M 31
11/25/00 Oklahoma 12, Oklahoma State 7
12/02/00 Oklahoma 27, Kansas State 24
09/29/01 Oklahoma 38, Kansas State 37
01/01/02 Oklahoma 10, Arkansas 3
10/05/02 Oklahoma 31, Missouri 24
09/06/03 Oklahoma 20, Alabama 13
10/30/04 Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 35*
11/06/04 Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 35*
10/22/05 Oklahoma 37, Baylor 30 (2OT)*
10/29/05 Oklahoma 31, Nebraska 24*
11/12/05 Oklahoma 36, Texas A&M 30*
12/29/05 Oklahoma 17, Oregon 14*
09/02/06 Oklahoma 24, UAB 17*
11/04/06 Oklahoma 17, Texas A&M 16*
11/25/06 Oklahoma 27, Oklahoma State 21*
10/06/07 Oklahoma 28, Texas 21*

LOSS
10/02/99 Notre Dame 34, Oklahoma 30
12/31/99 Mississippi 27, Oklahoma 25
11/24/01 Oklahoma State 16, Oklahoma 13
11/09/02 Texas A&M 30, Oklahoma 26
01/04/04 LSU 21, Oklahoma 14*
09/03/05 TCU 17, Oklahoma 10*
11/19/05 Texas Tech 23, Oklahoma 21*
09/16/06 Oregon 34, Oklahoma 33*
01/01/07 Boise State 43, Oklahoma 42 (OT)*
09/29/07 Colorado 27, Oklahoma 24*
11/17/07 Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma 27*
09/05/09 BYU 14, Oklahoma 13*

Overall in Bob Stoops Era: 17 and 12
With Mike Stoops: 7 and 4
*Without Mike Stoops: 10 and 8

2 comments:

Jacob Epperson said...

I'm sure this makes perfect sense.

Ryan Claborn said...

So what's the conclusion, Professor?

It's a valid question, but let me throw something out here. The other 80% of their games weren't close because they were blowing someone out. I get your point about toughness, but I think the best you can conclude here is that if someone manages to stay with OU into the 4th the odds that OU loses are like 40%.

I appreciate the honest evaluation, but they are pretty tough hombres and I'd be curious to see if any of the traditional powers have better marks over a 10 year period.